pilot's log

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Economic Analysis

I've been thinking a lot about what needs to happen to get the US and global economy back-on-track. The first thing that needs to happen is that businesses need to sell things that people will pay for -- beyond the simple necessities.

Right now, people are struggling to afford just that, so it's a difficult cycle to break until people feel they have more discretionary income.

Also, people will probably learn to keep things for longer -- even cars. So, the question is what disposable category are people willing to pay additional money for?

Once these growth businesses start expanding, businesses can start to take out loans to invest in these types of businesses. Banks will see a return on investments and will start to lend.

The problem is -- what will these businesses be?

Another thing that just came into my mind is the value of recycled goods -- reusing things, or using them for longer. Again, the problem becomes if people aren't buying additional durable goods, what will they spend their money on for the economy to grow?

It goes back to housing -- everyone needs it: our population is increasing in general so housing is a necessity. More thoughts to come later...

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